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Chinese stimulus is expected to have a less favorable impact on base metals compared to previous years. While emerging markets show positive earnings and policy changes, risks from U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration loom. The U.S. dollar is seen as a strong hedge against these uncertainties, with a generally overweight stance on global equities and specific currencies like the JPY, while Europe remains underweight due to disappointing economic data.
Donald Trump's potential return to power raises concerns in Asia, particularly regarding trade and currency stability, as his threats of higher tariffs could disrupt the region's economic balance. Officials may face tough choices, including tolerating currency weakness or disappointing growth, as they await clarity on his fiscal policies. This contrasts sharply with earlier optimism driven by rate cuts and anticipated stimulus in China, which had fostered hopes for a more favorable economic environment.
Foreign automakers are struggling to maintain their market share in China's rapidly evolving electric vehicle sector, with many facing declining revenues and increased competition from domestic brands like BYD and Geely. Analysts suggest that partnerships with local companies are essential for survival, as traditional fossil fuel-based manufacturers adapt to a market where new energy vehicles dominate. Despite the challenges, foreign firms are investing in joint ventures and advanced technologies to remain competitive, though the landscape remains fiercely competitive.
Electric vehicle sales in China are significantly impacting gasoline consumption, which has declined in recent months. The US Energy Information Administration attributes this trend to increased EV sales, slow economic growth, and a declining population, leading to reduced forecasts for petroleum demand in the coming years. As electric vehicles gain market share, the future of gasoline consumption in China appears increasingly uncertain.
CapitaLand Investment Ltd., a major property investment manager in Asia, has signaled potential losses as it aims to reduce its exposure to China's real estate sector. The Singapore-based firm plans to limit its investments in the country to 10-20% of its projected S$200 billion ($149 billion) in funds under management by 2028.
Pakistan is experiencing a significant surge in solar energy adoption, with imports of solar equipment from China reaching $1.7 billion in the first nine months of the year. This investment could generate 17 gigawatts of power, representing over a third of the country's total capacity, as solar panels are deployed on rooftops and farms. However, this rapid expansion poses challenges for the national grid.
EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure, trading below 1.0550 amid mixed US economic data, while GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.2650 despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Norinchukin Bank in Japan anticipates significant losses due to rising global interest rates, prompting asset disposals to mitigate risks. The dollar index holds steady, with gold prices rising significantly.
China is poised to implement a significant spending package to support its economy, with UBS predicting an expanded fiscal deficit of 2% of GDP in 2025, amounting to over 2 trillion yuan ($276 billion). Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, indicated that the government has the capacity for bolder actions, including income and consumption subsidies, potentially announced during the National People's Congress in March.
PDD Holdings Inc. reported a significant drop in sales, with revenue of 99.4 billion yuan ($13.7 billion) for the September quarter, falling short of the 102.8 billion yuan estimate. Net income also missed projections at 25 billion yuan, compared to the expected 26.6 billion yuan. Following the announcement, PDD's shares plummeted by as much as 16% in pre-market US trading.
China's extensive surveillance system has led to a black market where insiders sell access to citizens' private data, often for cryptocurrency. Researchers from SpyCloud reveal that government employees are tempted by lucrative side hustles, selling sensitive information like banking details and personal records. This exploitation highlights the pervasive corruption within China's security services, where data collected for state monitoring is repurposed for profit.
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